Executive Summary
This report examines emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) and their impact on Canadian national security. These technologies include:
● Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)
● Data, Computing, and the Internet-of-Things (IoT)
● Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technologies (DLT)
● Robotics and Autonomous Systems
● Quantum-Enabled Technologies
● Biotechnology and Human Enhancements
● Additive Manufacturing
● Battery Storage and Renewables
● Space-based Applications
The widespread application of EDTs to a vast array of industries and sectors defines many of these technologies as “general purpose technologies” (GPT). Broadly defined, GPTs are technologies with the capacity to reconfigure the shape and development of modern societies, dramatically altering their pace and structure. Historical examples of GPTs include the steam engine, the printing press, the railroad, electricity, and the internal combustion engine.
Much as mass electrification accelerated the rise of modern industrial societies in the 20th century, so technologies like AI and ML have begun transforming the contours of the global order. Competition across a changing "geotechnological" landscape is inextricably linked to a rising great power rivalry between the United States and China. Areas of competition include cloud technologies, semiconductor chips, hypersonic and new missile technologies, space-based applications, quantum and biotechnologies, autonomous and electric vehicles (AEVs), battery storage, and telecommunications.
Forecasting trends in this uncertain environment is daunting because timelines on various EDT remain unclear. What is clear is that EDT will confer transformational advantages to nations that incorporate these technologies into their security and intelligence organizations, military establishments, and commercial industries. Over this decade, AI alone is expected to transform the nature of war, altering the speed and scope of military conflict. Indeed, the ongoing weaponization of AI and other frontier technologies is now fueling a global arms race that promises to reshape the contours of Canadian national security strategy.
In fact, Canadian defence planning has already begun incorporating many of these new technology platforms into Canada’s national defense network (a “system-of-systems”). Together, remotely piloted drones, cybertechnologies and space-based surveillance assets represent the emergence of a new generation of defense capabilities. In the decades ahead, spin-off technologies overlapping a global market in software and electronics will proliferate, resetting the conditions for interstate conflict.
Notwithstanding the fact that technological innovation has always shaped national security, the scale and velocity of contemporary technological change is unprecedented. Beyond an industrial era rooted in extractive production (coal, oil, livestock, and scarce raw materials), we are now moving into a world that is highly dependent on systems of data-driven engineering and design. Together protons, electrons, qubits, DNA, and new materials have become basic building blocks in reshaping the fabric of industrialized societies.
Given the accelerating pace of innovation and the rise of Asia as the center of global trade, the impact of technologies from abroad could be substantial. Data-driven technologies are now so pervasive that they have become indispensable to modern transportation systems, water and power systems, electrical transmission grids, weapons systems, command-and-control systems, and routine everyday communications. In the decades ahead, frontier technologies including deep learning, quantum computing, and genetic engineering will accelerate job losses, drive military transformation, and introduce biotechnologies capable of fundamentally transforming our relationship to nature.
In the healthcare sector, AI has already begun accelerating drug discovery and the development of new commercially viable biotechnologies.[1] Gene sequencing combined with AI represents a new era of genetic engineering that could alter existing organisms and synthesize entirely new organisms. In the banking and finance sectors, blockchain and DLT are beginning to transform asset management around distributed data networks. While in the automotive and manufacturing sectors, AEVs are underwriting a long-term transformation of energy and mobility around zero carbon “smart cities”.
While Canadian planning has historically taken a “wait and see” approach, this may not be a strategic option. Revolutionary advancements in AI and other EDTs are now reshaping the global balance of power. Areas of discovery overlapping neuroscience, quantum computing, and biotechnology are advancing quickly and represent uncharted territory in the evolution of “intelligence machines”. Indeed, prospects for developing fully autonomous weapons is no longer a matter of science-fiction. Many nations around the world have already begun deploying automated personnel and equipment maintenance systems, autonomous surveillance and reconnaissance systems, and AI-powered drones and robotics.
With the expanding economic heft of Asia and especially China, Canadian policy and planning will need to chart a pragmatic course. While this is a role familiar to Canadian policymakers, EDTs represent a unique challenge for national security because the bulk of research and development is happening in the commercial sector. For this reason, Canadian national security strategy (NSS) will need to become better attuned to the needs of commercial industry. In this regard, the Liberal Government’s recent proposal to establish a Canada Advanced Research Projects Agency (CARPA) could be critical to advancing Canada’s frontier technologies for a new multipolar era.
While national security is often conflated with state security (i.e., protecting state institutions from threats foreign and domestic), this report argues that Canadian NSS should speak to a broad spectrum of concerns, particularly core Canadian values applied to contemporary security challenges. Over the course of this decade, Canadian national security will face a unique geopolitical environment framed by great power competition, extreme climate events, and accelerating technological disruption. In this report, the authors outline several policy proposals for managing Canadian NSS in this new era, looking specifically at the importance of data and data-driven technologies. These recommendations include:
Recommendations
Promoting the importance of data as a national asset.
Pursuing efforts to support both national and multilateral initiatives for data security and governance.
Supporting and promoting a sovereign Canadian cloud infrastructure and space-based internet.
Building a national data infrastructure.
Establishing a cross-governmental unit to handle emerging and disruptive technologies with an enhanced mandate for Canada’s CTO.